RAM Price Increase 2026: The DRAM and NAND Surge Behind Every OEM Hike
Contract DRAM and NAND prices are forecast up double digits per quarter, lead times pushed past 40 weeks, and Cisco has told investors memory costs could triple. Here is the upstream story behind nearly every hardware price move this fiscal year.
By Uniqcli Team · · 4 min read
One upstream shortage is driving nearly every hardware price move buyers are seeing in 2026. TrendForce forecasts conventional DRAM contract prices rising 58-63% quarter-over-quarter and NAND Flash contract prices rising 70-75% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2026, as memory suppliers reallocate fab capacity toward server, HBM and AI workloads (TrendForce, March 2026). Downstream, the Coalition for Government Procurement warned in March that commercial DRAM prices are already up over 500%, and on Cisco's February earnings call the CFO told investors memory prices "have doubled in a year and probably will triple before the year is out." If you are budgeting servers, all-flash arrays or memory-heavy configs this fiscal year, this is the single cost driver to understand before your quote window closes.
What changed, and when
The trigger is a supply reallocation, not a demand collapse. TrendForce, in a forecast published March 31, 2026, projects conventional DRAM contract prices up 58-63% quarter-over-quarter and NAND Flash contract prices up 70-75% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2026, attributing the move to DRAM suppliers shifting capacity toward server and HBM applications while NAND demand stays strong from AI and data-center deployments (TrendForce, March 2026). TrendForce also reports that cloud service providers are locking in supply through long-term agreements — a signal that the largest buyers expect scarcity to persist, not ease. Because these are contract prices rather than spot quotes, the increases flow through to the OEMs that build servers, storage and networking gear, and from there into the catalog prices buyers see.
Lead times, not just prices
The second half of the problem is availability. According to the SHI Resource Hub, DRAM lead times for larger orders have extended beyond 40 weeks as of late 2025 into 2026, up from roughly 25 weeks in mid-2025, with pricing guidance of a 30-60% uplift over the January 2026 baseline expected through the first half of 2026 — driven by Samsung, SK hynix and Micron shifting fab capacity toward AI and HBM memory (SHI, 2026). SHI notes no clear relief is signaled before 2027-2028. For procurement teams, that means memory-dependent refreshes need both extra runway and price-volatility headroom built into any RFQ. A switch or server order placed today on a 40-plus-week lead time may not deliver — or reprice — on the schedule a prior fiscal year would have assumed.
Cisco puts a number on it
Cisco is the clearest vendor-confirmed data point on how far this reaches. On Cisco's Q2 FY2026 earnings call on February 12, 2026, CFO Mark Patterson said memory prices "have doubled in a year and probably will triple before the year is out," that Cisco's advance purchase commitments for memory rose $1.8 billion in the quarter — a 73% year-on-year increase — and that Cisco is rewriting contracts with flex-pricing provisions to pass DRAM and flash cost increases through to customers (The Next Platform, citing Cisco's Q2 FY26 earnings call, February 2026). That last point is the operational takeaway for buyers: flex-pricing and surcharge clauses on new hardware contracts are becoming the stated norm, which is why Cisco quote windows have shortened. We cover the Cisco specifics in a companion post linked below.
Already landing in the commercial market
Beyond forecasts, price moves are already showing up. The Coalition for Government Procurement, an industry association, reported on March 6, 2026 that commercial DRAM prices are up over 500%, that PC prices are already up 10-15% with a projected further 20-25% over the next six months, and that server prices have already risen 35-40% with a projected further 60-65% over the next six months (Coalition for Government Procurement, March 2026). The Coalition said the shortage is expected to continue until late 2027. Those server figures explain why memory-heavy configurations are repricing faster than the rest of the catalog — a server or all-flash array carries far more DRAM and NAND per unit than a typical endpoint.
A third-party benchmark
For teams that want an analyst figure rather than vendor messaging, IDC forecast average PC prices to jump by up to 8% in 2026 due to what the report describes as "crushing memory shortages," and noted that some vendors are already selling pre-built systems without RAM installed to work around component scarcity (Tom's Hardware, citing IDC, 2026). That 8% is an average across the PC market; the server and all-flash figures cited by the Coalition run far higher, which is why memory-heavy configurations are moving faster than the rest of the catalog.
DRAM contract price, Q2 2026 QoQ forecast (TrendForce, Mar 2026)
NAND Flash contract price, Q2 2026 QoQ forecast (TrendForce, Mar 2026)
Commercial DRAM price move (Coalition for Government Procurement, Mar 2026)
Server prices to date, plus projected next 6 months (Coalition, Mar 2026)
DRAM lead times for larger orders (SHI, 2026)
Cisco advance memory purchase commitments, YoY (Cisco Q2 FY26 call, Feb 2026)
Average PC price forecast, 2026 (IDC via Tom's Hardware, 2026)
What to do before the window closes
- Lock quotes now on memory-heavy configs — servers and all-flash arrays are moving fastest per the Coalition's server figures.
- Budget both extra lead time and price volatility: SHI reports 40-plus-week DRAM lead times with no relief signaled before 2027-2028.
- Expect flex-pricing and surcharge clauses on new hardware contracts — Cisco has confirmed it is rewriting contracts to pass memory costs through.
- Separate memory-dependent line items from the rest of an RFQ so the volatile components don't hold up the whole order.
Why are RAM prices rising so sharply in 2026?
TrendForce attributes the move to memory suppliers reallocating fab capacity toward server, HBM and AI applications while NAND demand stays strong from data-center deployments, forecasting DRAM contract prices up 58-63% and NAND up 70-75% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2026 (TrendForce, March 2026). SHI reports Samsung, SK hynix and Micron shifting capacity toward AI/HBM memory as the root cause (SHI, 2026).
How long is the shortage expected to last?
The Coalition for Government Procurement said the shortage is expected to continue until late 2027 (Coalition, March 2026), and SHI reports no clear relief signaled before 2027-2028 (SHI, 2026).
Which products are affected most?
Memory-heavy configurations move fastest. The Coalition reports server prices already up 35-40% with a projected further 60-65%, versus PCs up 10-15% (Coalition, March 2026). IDC forecasts average PC prices up to 8% for 2026 (via Tom's Hardware, 2026).
Will these increases show up on vendor contracts?
Cisco's CFO confirmed on the February 12, 2026 earnings call that Cisco is rewriting contracts with flex-pricing provisions to pass DRAM and flash cost increases through to customers (The Next Platform, citing Cisco Q2 FY26 call, February 2026). Buyers should expect similar surcharge or flex-pricing clauses more broadly.
Sources and status
TrendForce (March 2026) — DRAM contract prices forecast +58-63% QoQ and NAND Flash +70-75% QoQ in Q2 2026, with suppliers reallocating capacity toward server/HBM and cloud providers locking in long-term supply: reported (forecast). Coalition for Government Procurement (March 6, 2026) — commercial DRAM up over 500%, PC prices +10-15% (projected +20-25% more), server prices +35-40% (projected +60-65% more), and the shortage projected through late 2027: reported (industry-association warning). IDC via Tom's Hardware (2026) — average PC prices forecast up to +8% in 2026 on memory shortages, with some vendors shipping pre-builts without RAM: reported (analyst forecast). SHI Resource Hub (2026) — DRAM lead times beyond 40 weeks (up from ~25 weeks mid-2025) and a 30-60% price uplift over the January 2026 baseline through H1 2026, driven by Samsung/SK hynix/Micron shifting to AI/HBM: reported. Cisco Q2 FY2026 earnings call (February 12, 2026), via The Next Platform — CFO Mark Patterson stated memory prices have doubled year-on-year and may triple by year end, advance memory purchase commitments rose $1.8 billion (+73% YoY) in the quarter, and Cisco is adding flex-pricing provisions: vendor-confirmed.
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